Political crisis in Venezuela won’t escalate into civil war, notes expert

The deep political crisis in Venezuela won’t spill into an armed conflict in the country and claims about that have been exaggerated.

"Civil war between the opposition and Chavists [supporters of left-wing ideology of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez] is highly unlikely," the expert said. The reason is very simple: the authorities are using only electoral support, let’s say, they don’t have a political movement that Chavez had."

In 1999-2013, when Chavez ruled the country the Venezuelan society was split, but now there are no serious differences among social groups, while 80% of the country’s population is below the poverty line.

The expert noted that there are a number of factors in the Bolivarian Republic, which could be a reason for internal armed confrontation. "In Venezuela there are no differences based on ethnic, religious and regional grounds, which we saw in other countries, and there are no movements fighting for independence of certain regions," Pantulas said. Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido earlier ruled out a civil war in the country, calling this a farce which incumbent President Nikolas Maduro wants to pitch.

Juan Guaido, Venezuelan opposition leader and parliament speaker, whose appointment to that position had been cancelled by the country’s Supreme Court, declared himself interim president at a rally in the country’s capital of Caracas on January 23. On the same day the United States recognized him as an interim president, and the countries of the Lima Group (excluding Mexico) and the Organization of American States followed suit. Venezuela's incumbent President Nicolas Maduro blasted the move as an attempted coup and announced cutting diplomatic ties with the United States.

On Monday, most European Union member-states recognized Guaido as Venezuela’s interim president. Russia, Belarus, Bolivia, Iran, Cuba, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Turkey voiced support for Maduro.