Analysis: Biden win would lift Mexico-U.S. ties but energy is 'canary in the mine'

A Joe Biden presidency would lower border tensions and raise pressure on Mexico to respect U.S. business interests as the two neighbors implement a trade deal designed to claw back jobs from China, officials and industry sources say.

Biden on Nov. 3 aims to unseat President Donald Trump, who has stirred up tensions with Mexico over trade and border security ever since he referred to Mexican migrants as rapists and drug runners at the outset of his 2015-16 presidential bid.

Still, since taking office in late 2018, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has forged an uneasy alliance with Trump, acceding to his demands to keep out illegal immigrants in return for a relatively free hand in Mexico to interfere with foreign businesses, many of whom are planning litigation.

If victorious, Biden would face political and corporate pressure to curb Lopez Obrador’s efforts to sideline private firms in Mexico’s energy sector, and to ensure its government honors commitments to strengthen labor laws to make outsourcing American jobs tougher, a priority for U.S. trade unions.

“I think Biden will be able to tell Mexico to make sure that we abide by the rule of law if you have any contracts with energy or whatever,” said Henry Cuellar, a Democratic congressman who chairs the U.S.-Mexico Interparliamentary Group.

Cuellar, a staunch ally of Mexico in its efforts to stop Trump tearing up the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), said Biden would be firm in adhering to joint accords, but much more actively engaged with the Mexican government.

The former U.S. vice president’s desire to salve diplomatic bruises of the last four years has many politicians in both countries looking forward to a relationship free of the blame games and brinkmanship Trump often deployed to get his way.

Business leaders expect Biden to govern in a more rules-based way than Trump, whose clashes with U.S. courts mirror some of Lopez Obrador’s own battles with checks on his power.

Advocating a more “humane” approach to migration, Biden says he aims to combat the poverty and violence behind it, just as he did in 2014 as Barack Obama’s vice president when he spearheaded a major infrastructure plan to lift Central American economies.

That would dovetail with Lopez Obrador’s attitude in his own election campaign, before Trump threatened to hammer Mexico with trade tariffs if it did not stop the migrants.

Mexico’s government also knows Biden would not want to face a sudden influx of migrants crossing Mexico via Guatemala, said a Mexican official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“(Mexico) won’t be withdrawing its national guard from the southern border the day Biden takes office,” said the official, expressing the hope the Democrat wins the election.

The Biden campaign did not respond to requests for comment.