NATO holds key to European club for Georgia, Ukraine

The former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine hope to put themselves on the road to closer links with the West at a NATO summit this week despite opposition from Moscow.

Their leaders will go to the summit, starting on Wednesday in Romania, to seek a Membership Action Plan (MAP) — a road map to eventual entry already secured by Croatia, Macedonia and Albania.

But one of the crucial differences between the two former Soviet republics and their fellow aspirants in the Balkans is that former imperial master Russia resolutely opposes them joining and has warned of grave consequences if they do.

That dispute could cause a distinct chill in the air at Bucharest’s vast Parliament Palace, venue for the summit, when Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives as guest of honor.

Putin said in February that if Ukraine joined NATO and accepted foreign military bases which threatened Russia’s security, Moscow would re-target its missiles at the country.

“We cannot agree that the ... policy of NATO’s further expansion towards the Russian borders has a positive role in creating stability, enhancing democracy and freedom in Europe,” a Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said on Monday.

But for both Georgia and Ukraine, pursuing NATO membership is important enough to risk incurring Russia’s wrath.

Led by pro-Western leaders, Kiev and Tbilisi see NATO as a guarantee of their security and a badge of their progress towards integration with the club of European democracies.

“My dream is a prosperous and united Georgia,” Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said in an interview in Russia’s Kommersant newspaper on Monday. “NATO is one of the stages to implementing that.”

BREAKAWAY REGIONS
More than that though, Tbilisi wants NATO’s security guarantees to help it feel safer from its big neighbor Russia.

When a one-tonne missile landed in a farmer’s field an hour’s drive from Tbilisi last year, Georgia accused Russia of an act of aggression. Moscow said Tbilisi had staged the incident, and an international inquiry did not apportion blame.

Tbilisi also sees Moscow’s hand behind the pro-Russian Georgian breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where separatist forces regularly skirmish with Georgian troops.

Georgians say that Russian peacekeeping forces there provide military assistance to separatist troops. Russia provides financial aid to the breakaway regions, and has issued most residents with Russian passports.

“Georgia wants to join NATO because this organization provides security guarantees which we trust more than any other security organization,” Georgy Baramidze, Georgia’s state minister for European integration, told reporters.

But the instability that is driving Georgia to seek NATO membership is also the reason some alliance members, led by Germany, are against granting it MAP status in Bucharest.

They say having Georgia in NATO will mean importing its separatist conflicts too. Saakashvili’s crackdown on an opposition protest last year has also led some members to question if Georgia has the democratic credentials to join.

“Georgian membership in NATO would mean crossing a red line for Russia,” one Western ambassador in Moscow said. “If that happens, Russia will send extra troops into Abkhazia and recognize its independence.”

SPLIT DECISION
For Ukrainian leaders, seeking NATO membership is part of the same drive towards Western institutions as its long-term policy of joining the European Union.

The letter to apply for MAP was signed in January by President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and parliamentary speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk — all Western-leaning politicians who see Ukraine’s future with Europe.

“NATO membership is a political choice made by the country’s political elite,” said Volodymur Fesenko, an analyst at Ukraine’s Penta think-tank. “It could boost the country’s stature in international affairs.”

The challenge for the Ukrainian leadership is convincing a skeptical public that joining NATO is a good idea. A poll released this month showed only 30 percent of Ukrainians back it, and that for most people, the issue is not a priority.

Opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich, who draws most of his support from Russian-speaking areas, blocked parliamentary business for three weeks in protest at the MAP request.

Around 5,000 protesters rallied in the Crimean city of Simferapol on Saturday to demonstrate against NATO membership.

Kiev’s leaders say they can win over voters, and promise a referendum before committing to joining the alliance. But lukewarm public opinion — along with Russia’s hostile stance — has cooled support for Ukraine’s bid among some NATO states.