Theresa May vows to ‘battle’ in Brussels

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May pledged “to battle in Brussels for Britain” and insisted she has secured a majority in parliament to support her Brexit deal — provided the EU agrees to unspecified changes to the Withdrawal Agreement.

Writing in the Telegraph, May hailed Tuesday’s vote in parliament as proof that she could safely shepherd the U.K. out of the EU without delaying the March 29 exit date, and she forcefully dismissed calls for a second referendum.

But May did not specify the “alternative arrangements” that she would seek to the backstop provision on the Northern Ireland border. She has ignored repeated statements by EU leaders that no workable alternatives exist, and that they are unwilling to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement without substantive changes to U.K. red lines.

"When I return to Brussels I will be battling for Britain and Northern Ireland, I will be armed with a fresh mandate, new ideas and a renewed determination to agree a pragmatic solution that delivers the Brexit the British people voted for," May wrote.

May’s op-ed appears largely aimed at trying to persuade her critics and opponents at home — a signal the vote in parliament has hardly settled Britain’s rancorous domestic Brexit debate.

“The backstop is a necessary guarantee, based on legal certainty, not just wishful thinking" — Simon Coveney, Irish foreign minister

EU officials have criticized last week’s vote in parliament, in which an amendment by Tory MP Graham Brady calling for alternatives to the backstop was approved by 317 to 301. They said that parliament did not offer any specific alternatives, and that it us still not clear a majority would vote to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement even in the event the EU agreed to such unspecified changes.

The U.K.’s International Trade Secretary Liam Fox told Sky News on Sunday it would be “irresponsible” of the EU to refuse to return to the negotiating table — referencing “increasing worry about the state of the European economy,” a return to recession in Italy, and slowdowns in Germany and France as reasons why EU capitals must avoid a no-deal outcome.

“Member states who have governments who need to be reelected need to worry about real jobs, real prosperity and real trade,” he said.

In Brussels, officials have noted that their defense of the backstop is not only aimed at showing solidarity with Ireland but also crucial to protecting the EU's single market — the core pillar of the bloc's economic power and prosperity. They have said they are confident a no-deal scenario would hurt Britain far more than the EU.

May and other British officials have suggested that potential solutions include either a time limit to the backstop provision, or a clause allowing the U.K. to withdraw from it unilaterally. The EU has repeatedly rejected those proposals as undermining the backstop — a position reiterated by Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney in his own op-ed in the Sunday Times.

“This is not a new concept,” Coveney wrote. “The EU is committed to trying to agree alternative arrangements to replace the backstop. We want a comprehensive future relationship in place by the end of 2020 so the backstop is never used. We want to get on with that work once the withdrawal agreement is ratified. Yet there are no credible alternative arrangements, put forward by anyone, that achieve the shared goal of the U.K. and EU to avoid a hard border."

“The backstop is a necessary guarantee, based on legal certainty, not just wishful thinking,” Coveney added. "A time limit or unilateral exit mechanism would make that guarantee redundant, prolonging uncertainty for Northern Ireland’s people."

May, in her op-ed, insisted that the parliament's vote provides far more clarity that she could win ratification of her deal, though she did not explain how she could also win ratification by the European Parliament of the changes she seeks.

“Tuesday’s votes were not just about what [the U.K.] Parliament did not want," she wrote. "Crucially, after months of passionate and often divisive debate, Parliament sent a clear message about what it does want. By a majority of 16, MPs said that, with changes to the Northern Ireland backstop, they would support the deal that I agreed with Brussels to take us out of the EU.

"Significantly, the amendment that MPs voted in favor of carried support from across the Conservative Party," she added. "My colleagues — who had found themselves in different division lobbies in recent months — stood together, united in support of a single proposition."

"The backstop is required by all of us. This is not about trade or economics, but about people and peace" — Simon Coveney

Such comments will only reinforce the view in Brussels and across the Continent that May continues to stubbornly try to push through a Brexit plan with the support only of her own Tory Party, and without developing a cross-party consensus that could unite the U.K.

Without such consensus, EU officials have little reason to believe the U.K. can stick to a unified negotiation line, particularly when it comes to developing a future free-trade agreement — a process that will take years and will be difficult to conclude before the next British general election. That is currently scheduled for spring of 2022.

In his op-ed, Coveney urged the U.K. to put peace on the island of Ireland ahead of other concerns. "The backstop is required by all of us," he wrote. "This is not about trade or economics, but about people and peace."

Fox, on television, warned that if Ireland doesn’t negotiate, “they are likely to end up with a no-deal,” a scenario many agree is “the best route to get a hard border."

“So for the Irish I think it’s even more important than most that they are willing to talk to us,” Fox said.